The updated monsoon season rainfall forecast will be released in the last week of May 2025.
IMD Forecasts Above-Normal Monsoon in 2025 with Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole Conditions, Latest News:
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), on April 14, predicted above-normal rainfall for 2025, estimating 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is 87 cm, with a model error margin of ±5%.
"The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ±5%," the IMD said in a press release.
According to the IMD, most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, which falls in the range of 96% to 105% of the LPA.
M. Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at IMD, said,
"Forecast indicates that neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season."
The updated monsoon season rainfall forecast will be released in the last week of May 2025.
The IMD has also predicted neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions during the upcoming southwest monsoon season.
Mohapatra further noted that no El Niño conditions, which are usually associated with below-normal rainfall in the subcontinent, are expected to develop this time.
Earlier, the IMD had predicted a significantly high number of heatwaves in India this year, with heatwave conditions already reported in the first and second weeks of April 2025 in parts of Delhi, Punjab, and surrounding regions. This could strain power grids and lead to water shortages.
India's agriculture heavily depends on monsoon rainfall. It is also crucial for drinking water availability across the country. Therefore, the IMD’s prediction of normal to above-normal rainfall comes as a huge relief.
However, climate scientists have warned that the number of rainy days is declining, while extreme rainfall events (more rain over a short period) are on the rise — leading to frequent droughts and floods.
