Reasonable restrictions are necessary to curb food inflation.

The impact of the war in West Asia has not had much impact on food prices in India, which is a matter of satisfaction. First, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and then External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar have assured the countrymen in the last two days that the strength of the national economy is capable of withstanding the adverse effects of a sharp increase in global crude oil prices and this capacity is long-term, not short-lived. Despite such strength, the reality should not be ignored that the current situation is not going to continue for much longer. Like in India, food prices have not increased much globally in the last one year. According to the data of the United Nations agency 'Food and Agriculture Organization' (FAO), the rate of increase in wholesale prices of food items, especially cereals and vegetables and fruits, has been only 1 percent in the last one year. But this happiness is not going to last. Wars, wherever they occur, have far-reaching economic effects. For example, the Russian-Ukrainian war had a major impact on the global prices of crude oil and gas, which was borne by European countries. Similarly, the Israeli attacks on Gaza or Lebanon did not have a major impact on the global oil market, but its prices reached $64 to $80 per barrel due to instability in the capital market. Now, the situation arising from the US-Israeli attack on Iran has put the economies of almost all countries of the world, including the US, in a state of turmoil. While the stock markets have been in a slump over the past six weeks, investors have also been trying to secure their stuck capital instead of investing new capital. It is only natural that the food market will also come under the influence of such trends. In our country itself, the bills of dhabas and restaurants have started increasing. The price hike of common snacks like samosas, tikkis or sweets has also started to be clearly visible. The Rs 500 increase in the price of commercial cylinders is being blamed for such an increase. Similar possibilities are being raised in the context of other food items.

Our government claims that it is continuously taking drastic measures to cope with the situation arising from the 70 percent increase in the prices of crude oil and natural gas in the last 6 weeks. Despite such measures, the fear of shortage of chemical fertilizers during the Rabi sowing season dominates the thinking of farmers. The prospects of opening the Strait of Hormuz to unhindered global shipping fluctuates according to the tone of threats of US President Donald Trump. This tone determines whether Brent crude (crude oil) remains at $100 per barrel or reaches $120. The helplessness arising from such instability dominates the entire world economy. Such helplessness has given rise to the idea and thinking of establishing an alternative economy based on China-Russia-India-Brazil and Australia instead of the US-based world economy. But the task of giving practical form to this idea may take at least a decade. That is why even the advocates of the alternative economy are currently fumbling in the dark.

The Modi government says that it has ample food reserves to successfully cope with the difficulties arising from the further protracted war in West Asia. This is also the reality. Currently, more than 60 million tonnes of wheat and rice are available with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other central agencies. The procurement of the new wheat crop has also started and thus the central reserves are expected to double. The government has been providing free wheat and rice to 80 crore Indian citizens every year. For this, it requires 5.5 to 5.6 million tonnes of food grains. Therefore, there is no shortage of food grains in the country to meet the national needs and the food needs of neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Yes, the same cannot be said about the situation of edible oils. India imports large quantities of soybean, groundnut and sunflower oils in addition to palm oil to meet its food requirements. As crude oil prices are rising, making shipping more expensive, the import of edible oils is also becoming more expensive. The government should also take effective steps to reduce the impact of this inflation. The sooner these measures are possible, the less burden will be on the common man.