The shooting of two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has raised the risk of rekindling war in West Asia.
Iran's drone attacks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman and the firing on two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have raised the risk of a resurgence of war in the Middle East. The attacks came after US President Donald Trump announced that US naval vessels would help to ferry oil tankers stuck in the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman. According to media reports, Iranian drone and rocket attacks on the UAE's southern port of Fujairah damaged some buildings and injured three Indian workers.
According to an announcement by the UAE government, an Iranian gunboat also fired near the same port. In view of such actions, educational institutions across the emirate have been asked to adopt online teaching for a week. It has also been warned that the emirate will not tolerate any more such attacks and will not hesitate to respond to what happened on Monday.
Similarly, on Monday, a drone strike on a residential building in Oman injured two foreign nationals. The Omani Ministry of Defense called the attack an "unfriendly act" and threatened retaliation. On the other hand, the Iranian government has described the Fujairah attack as "unintentional" and said it had no intention of breaking the ceasefire. However, it has also described the US President's threat that "the whole of Iran will be destroyed" if Iranian gunboats do not stop attacking oil tankers as "a jackal's bluff."
The whole development came after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that there was some positive progress in the US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan. Araghchi is believed to represent the compromise faction in the Iranian government. The policies of this faction have been opposed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) command and the recent attacks on the Emirates and Oman are being seen as a conspiracy to sabotage the peace talks with the US. Although such tension in the Iranian establishment is not a new trend, it is still being considered as ‘unnecessary showdown’ in the current circumstances.
Independent analysts believe that despite the relentless bombing by the US and Israel for about a month and a half, the Iranian nuclear stockpile has not suffered much damage. US intelligence agencies also admit that in addition to the nuclear stockpile, Iran's stockpile of missiles and rockets is also largely safe. These facts have been strengthening the confrontational approach of the hardline Revolutionary Guards.
It is clear that Donald Trump is looking for a way out of the 'Iranian quagmire' as the continued protracted war is increasing discontent among the American population. America's allies in West Asia are particularly hard hit because their economies are continuing to suffer the real damage.
India has directly expressed its displeasure over the injury of three Indian citizens in an Iranian drone attack on an Emirati pipeline near the port of Fujairah and has called on Iran and the US to adopt a restrained approach. Overall, what is happening is dashing hopes of an early end to the war. The worrying thing is that due to Trump's arbitrary nature and the internal conflicts within the Iranian government, no third party is in the mood to intervene openly. This helplessness is both tragic and regrettable.