Any total precipitation falling below the 90 percent mark is classified as "deficient," raising concerns over water availability.

The southwest monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast around June 4, marking a slight delay in the country's vital four-month rainy season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that atmospheric indicators are aligning for the advancement of rain systems across the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, and parts of Tamil Nadu.

Significantly, weather tracking models show a noticeable shift from earlier baseline estimates, with the IMD projecting seasonal rainfall to drop to 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Any total precipitation falling below the 90 percent mark is classified as "deficient," raising concerns over water availability.

Meteorologists attribute this potential deficit to emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific region. While the disruptive climate pattern is expected to remain relatively weak during June, it is projected to strengthen into a moderate-to-strong system by September.

Nationally, the long-term seasonal benchmark stands at 87 centimeters, calculated over a 50-year data window ending in 2020. An initial assessment by the weather bureau had predicted an early arrival around late May, which ultimately failed to materialize due to weak westerly wind speeds.

The unfolding transition marks an anxious period for agricultural planning, as the June-to-September monsoon cycle accounts for the vast majority of India’s annual rainfall.